Trump Wanted Cuts — The Fed Blinked

Third rate cut of 2025: Trump turns up the pressure, Powell pretends it’s “data,” and the real fight over who runs the economy just went public.

The Federal Reserve just sliced rates for the third time this year — and no matter how many times Powell says “independent,” everyone in Washington knows what really shifted: Trump turned the screws. The Fed is trying to sell this as a cautious, technical adjustment while inflation sits above target and the job market cools. But the timing, the language, and the visible split inside the committee all point to one reality — the White House is no longer treating the Fed as an untouchable priesthood. With Powell’s term ending in May and Trump openly saying the next chair must be willing to cut, every move from the central bank now doubles as a message about who’s actually in charge of America’s economic steering wheel.

Fed Gives Trump the Cut He Wanted — With Strings Attached

The Fed just trimmed rates again, exactly the kind of move Trump has been calling for — but the fine print screams “we’re nervous.”

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, the third cut of 2025 and the lowest level since late 2022. On paper, it’s a classic “support the economy” move: cheaper borrowing for mortgages, credit cards, and business loans, at a time when hiring has clearly cooled and unemployment has ticked up.

But this wasn’t a calm, technocratic consensus. The vote was 9–3, with Governor Stephen Miran pushing for a deeper cut and Austan Goolsbee plus Jeffrey Schmid arguing for no cut at all. That level of dissent at the Fed is rare — and it tells you how tight the rope is between still-above-target inflation and a softer labor market. The committee is effectively admitting: they don’t love this move, they just dislike the alternatives more.

Overlay the politics, and the picture gets sharper. Inflation is running above the Fed’s 2% target, partly aggravated by Trump’s broad tariff strategy, while unemployment is projected to drift higher into 2026. Trump has been explicit that he wants a chair who will cut rates faster, and Powell’s term ends in May — with names like Kevin Hassett, Rick Rieder, and Fed insiders Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman in the mix. That means every rate decision from here on out doubles as economic policy and pre-game for a leadership change.

The Fed’s own projections tell a cautious story: modest GDP growth around 2.3% next year, unemployment edging higher, and inflation easing but not quite back to goal. That’s why Powell is selling this as a “hawkish cut” — a nod to the fact they’ve already cut 75 bps since September and now want room to pause and watch the data.

So today’s move isn’t the Fed “joining Trump’s team.” It’s the Fed trying to buy insurance against a weaker job market while signaling it hasn’t surrendered on inflation — all under the glare of a White House that has made lower rates a litmus test for the next chair.

RECEIPTS

• Fed cut the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, its third rate cut of 2025 and a total of 75 bps in cuts since September.

• The decision passed 9–3, with Miran favoring a 0.50-point cut and Goolsbee and Schmid preferring no change.

• Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target while unemployment has risen toward the mid-4% range, raising stagflation concerns.

• Powell said the fed funds rate is now near “neutral” and stressed policy is not on a preset course — code for a likely pause unless the data deteriorates.

• Trump is expected to name a new Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May, with Kevin Hassett widely reported as a leading contender among several candidates.

Today’s cut lowers borrowing costs and gives near-term support to growth, but it also sets up a bigger 2026 fight over who controls the narrative on the economy: an increasingly divided Fed, or a White House that wants rates down faster.

The Fed moved the rate today — the real battle is over who gets to steer it next.

FIELD INTEL:

Massie Moves to Pull U.S. Out of NATO as Trump Keeps Squeezing Allies

Rep. Thomas Massie just dropped a bill to withdraw the United States from NATO, arguing the alliance is a “Cold War relic” that drains U.S. taxpayers and drags America toward foreign wars. He says the money should be redirected to defending the homeland, not “socialist countries.” The move lands directly in the slipstream of Trump’s long-running pressure campaign on NATO — especially his push for allies to hit 3.5% of GDP on defense spending by 2035 and stop riding on U.S. security guarantees. Massie has early backing from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and Sen. Mike Lee, but most of Congress, including many Republicans, still backs deeper NATO engagement and new deterrence projects on the alliance’s eastern flank.

Read more

U.S. Seizes Massive Venezuelan Tanker as Trump Hints ‘More Is Coming’

Trump announced the U.S. has seized a “very large” oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela — described as the largest ever taken — and teased “other things are happening” to follow. Initial reporting says the administration is likely to frame the move as an enforcement action tied to U.S. sanctions, treating the vessel and its crude as contraband linked to Nicolás Maduro’s regime. Venezuela is expected to denounce the seizure as piracy, and sympathetic media may echo that line, but the action slots into a wider pattern: escalating U.S. pressure that already includes at least 22 strikes on alleged narcotraffickers near Venezuela, with 87 killed, and open discussion inside Washington of potential land or even ground operations against Maduro’s network.

Read more

Hill: Boat Strike Near Venezuela Triggers War-Crime Questions, Demands for Video

Congress is now deep into the fallout from a U.S. strike on a suspected drug boat in the Caribbean that killed 11 people — including two survivors in a controversial follow-up attack. In closed briefings, Adm. Frank “Mitch” Bradley has denied that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ever gave a “kill them all” order, but lawmakers who watched the video describe it as “deeply concerning” and want the Pentagon to release the footage and the legal memo authorizing the mission. Legal experts warn the “double tap” could violate the laws of war if unarmed survivors were deliberately targeted. The incident comes amid a broader boat-strike campaign against alleged narco-traffickers near Venezuela and the Eastern Pacific, with more than 20 strikes and dozens of deaths already under scrutiny at home and abroad.

Read more

Today’s cut isn’t the end of the story — it’s the opening round in a very public struggle over whether unelected bankers or an elected president set the terms for growth, jobs, and the cost of money in Trump’s America.

~ Scott 🇺🇸

PS: While the Fed blinks, the rest of the chessboard is moving: Massie is pushing a clean NATO exit bill, Trump’s team just helped seize a massive Venezuelan tanker with more pressure promised, and Congress is circling the Pentagon over a deadly drug-boat strike that could reshape how U.S. power is used off Venezuela’s coast.

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